Geopolitical Shocks and Global Wheat Trade Reallocation: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine War

Maxwell Peprah Amponsem, Selin Guney, Edward Osei and Mark Yu

No 404641, 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: This paper examines the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on global wheat trade using monthly bilateral trade data from 2010-2024. We estimate gravity-based difference-indifferences, event-study, and exposure-based triple-difference specifications to identify the trade and food-security consequences of the invasion. The results reveal sharply asymmetric responses across the two belligerent exporters. Ukraine’s wheat exports collapsed immediately following the invasion and remained substantially below pre-war levels, while Russia’s exports remained comparatively resilient and expanded in several destination markets. The disruption was concentrated among importers dependent on Black Sea maritime shipping, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Delivery-route heterogeneity test indicate that disruption of Black Sea shipping infrastructure, rather than sanctions or generalized demand contraction, was the primary transmission mechanism behind Ukraine’s export collapse. Exposure-based triple-difference estimates further show that importers with greater pre-war dependence on Ukrainian wheat experienced significantly larger post-invasion trade declines. Translating the estimated disruptions into importer-level exposure measures reveals substantial short-run food-security exposure among several import-dependent economies, althoughreplacementdynamicsindicatethat muchoftheinitial shortfall was offset within several months through trade reallocation toward alternative suppliers.

Keywords: International; Development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea26:404641

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404641

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