Dynamic Trade Reallocation under Inland Waterway Disruptions: Evidence from U.S. Port-level Grain Exports

Minseong Kang and Seungki Lee

No 404679, 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: Droughts have increasingly disrupted the Mississippi River system, which carries roughly half of all U.S. grain exports. Using monthly port-level data for 178 ports over 2013–2024, this study examines how the U.S. port network dynamically reallocates export shipments when their vital domestic shipping lane is disrupted by droughts. The dynamic causal impact of river disruption on port-level trade flows are estimated within a local-projection IV framework, exploiting localized variation across 44 river gages as a Bartik shift-share instrument for barge rates. We find that the U.S. port network buffers waterway disruptions only in the short run. Non-Gulf ports absorb nearly the entire Gulf shortfalls within the first six months, but these gains fade over the twelve-month horizon, leaving a clear cumulative shortfall. Substitution speed and durability depend on the geometry of the alternative and sesonal contractual regidity.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea26:404679

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404679

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