Intra-Annual Timing of Discretionary Agricultural Trade Interventions

Steve MIller, Nisha Koppa, Suraiya Binte Ali and Uchechukwu Jarrett

No 404680, 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: Weexamine the intra-annual timing of discretionary agricultural trade interventions for maize, rice, and wheat. Relating intervention timing to production cycles reveals that many interventions occur during growing seasons when policymakers lack complete harvest information. Based on this observation, we ask whether hypothesized drivers of intervention– international price and domestic yield– are more strongly related to intervention probability during different parts of the production cycle. We find strong associations between intervention and two yield signals at different times: realized yield with some delay after harvest and satellite-derived proxies for crop conditions during the season. Prices are consistently associated with intervention throughout the year.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 57
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea26:404680

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404680

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