Market Integration and Price Transmission: Is the Indian Domestic Rice Market Immune to International Volatility?

Khondoker Mottaleb

No 404681, 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri from Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

Abstract: This study examines whether India’s rice market is insulated from external price variability shocks using monthly data on domestic rice prices, international rice prices, crude oil prices, fertilizer prices, and exchange rates. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework is employed to analyze both short-run and long-run volatility transmission. The results indicate strong integration between domestic wholesale and retail rice-price variability, while direct effects from international rice markets remain weak. Exchange-rate variability emerges as the most important external transmission channel. Overall, the findings suggest that India’s rice market is partially insulated from global price volatility, although external shocks continue to influence domestic markets indirectly through broader macroeconomic conditions.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 17
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea26:404681

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404681

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