An expost economic assessment of the intervention against highly pathogenic avian influenza in Nigeria

Mohamadou L. Fadiga, Iheanacho Okike and Bernard Bett

Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, 2014, vol. 03, issue 01, 17

Abstract: This study assesses the intervention against avian influenza in Nigeria. It applied a simple compartmental model to define endemic and burn-out scenarios for the risk of spread of HPAI in Nigeria. It followed with the derivation of low and high mortality risks associated to each scenario. The estimated risk parameters were subsequently used to stochastically simulate the trajectory of the disease, had no intervention been carried out. Overall, the intervention costs US$ 41 million, which was yearly disbursed in various amounts over the 2006-2010 period. The key output variables (incremental net benefit, disease cost, and benefit cost ratio) were estimated for each randomly drawn risk parameter. With a 12% annual discount rate, the results show that the intervention was economically justified under the endemic scenario with high mortality risk. On average, incremental benefit under this scenario amounted to US$ 63.7 million, incremental net benefit to US$27.2 million, and benefit cost ratio estimated to 1.75.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Health Economics and Policy; Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/172414/files/12713-28437-1-PB.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aieabj:172414

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.172414

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal from Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().