Impact of weather variability on crop yields and land use dynamics in Eastern India: Short- and long-term effects

Pratap Kumar Jena, Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh, Souryabrata Mohapatra and Ashok Mishra

Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, 2025, vol. 14, issue 2

Abstract: Weather variability disrupts food grain production and agricultural sustainability. While existing literature highlights the stationary relationship between weather variables and agricultural outcomes, it often overlooks their bearing on land use changes. This study investigates the dynamic effects of weather variations on crop yields, land use and intensity in Odisha, Eastern India, using district-level data from 2001-18. By employing a ‘panel auto-regressive distributive lag (P-ARDL) model, we assess long- and short-term relationships between weather parameters and agricultural yields. Results reveal a negative marginal impact of rainfall deviation on yield, ranging from -0.16 for wheat to -0.48 for green gram in the long term. In the short term, however, the marginal impact is positive for some pulses (green gram, black gram) and oilseeds (groundnuts). Weather variability has adversely affected the intensity of land use but has induced crop diversification in both the short and long term.

Keywords: Climate; Change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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