Forecasting Wheat Production Using Time Series Models in Pakistan

M. Asif Masood, Irum Raza and Saleem Abid

Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2018, vol. 08, issue 02

Abstract: The present paper was designed to forecast wheat production for 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-2020 respectively by using time series data from 1971-72 to 2016-17 with best selected time series models. Linear, Quadratic, Exponential, S-Curve, Double Exponential Smoothing, Single exponential smoothing, Moving average and ARIMA were estimated for wheat production. The results showed a mix trend in production of wheat for selected time period. ARIMA (2,1,2) was found best one keeping in view close forecasts with actual reported wheat production. So the preference inclined towards the ARIMA (2,1,2) than quadratic to forecasts of wheat production.

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Production Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ajosrd:342176

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.342176

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