Drought Conditions and Projected Crop Insurance Indemnities: 2026 Outlook

Dylan Turner

No 402745, ARPC Brief from North Dakota State University

Abstract: This brief projects 2026 drought-attributed crop insurance indemnities for six major U.S. field crops using county-level panel data from 2003 through 2025. Early-season Drought Severity and Coverage Index (DSCI) values are linked with USDA Risk Management Agency cause-of-loss records in a county fixed-effects framework to estimate the relationship between drought severity and insurance losses. Applied to January--May 2026 drought conditions, the model projects approximately $8.4 billion in drought indemnities nationally, with losses concentrated in the Great Plains and Midwest. These projections provide a data-driven baseline for assessing the Federal Crop Insurance Program's financial exposure to ongoing drought.

Keywords: Agricultural; and; Food; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ppm
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/402745/files/ARPC%20Brief%202026-16.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:arpcbr:402745

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.402745

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in ARPC Brief from North Dakota State University
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().