FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORT EARNINGS OF BANGLADESH: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF FRESH VEGETABLES AND FRUITS MARKETS

M. A. Awal, S. Abdus Sabur and M. I. A Mia

Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2010, vol. 33, issue 01-2, 17

Abstract: The study fitted ARIMA models based on some diagnostic tests and ARIMA (1, 1, 8) was finally chosen for total export, ARIMA (6, 2, 6) for agricultural export and ARIMA (1, 2, 1) for vegetables exports and ARIMA (8, 2, 8) for fruits export earnings. The percent of export earning was 10% in 2006-07 which would gradually increase up to 2008-09 and it would remain same till 2010-11. If the existing agricultural export earnings continue, Bangladesh would obtain 13% higher growth in the year 2006-07 but 6% lower growth in the year 201011 than the preceding years, respectively. The vegetables export earnings in Bangladesh would mark 23% growth in 2006-07 but it would decrease by 10% in of 2010-11. So, the government of Bangladesh should take cash incentive export policy for the development of this sector. It is strongly recommended that forecasting of the export earnings might be implemented in export policy making, especially in planning and development in Bangladesh, because these were cost effective and more accurate.

Keywords: Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/200250/files/Article_02%20Vol-XXXIII.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:bdbjaf:200250

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.200250

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics from Bangladesh Agricultural University Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().