Anticipatory Signals of Changes in Corn Demand

Leslie J. Verteramo Chiu and William G. Tomek

No 250032, Working Papers from Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management

Abstract: Contemporaneous observations on expected supply and on prices of post-harvest futures contracts for corn are used to estimate expected demand relationships. These equations are used to forecast the prices of the post-harvest contracts based on new supply estimates. Each forecast can be compared with a corresponding futures price, i.e., the market’s forecast. The differences help discern the market’s expectations about the expected demand for the new crop relative to historical experience, which can help support outlook analyses. The discussion also deepens understanding of the term “anticipatory prices,” as used by H. Working (1958).

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39
Date: 2016-06
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:cudawp:250032

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.250032

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