ALTERNATIVE FUTURES OF RURAL AREAS IN THE EU: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SCENARIO STUDIES

Kristina M. Jansson and Ida J. Terluin

No 57506, 113th Seminar, December 9-11, 2009, Belgrade, Serbia from European Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: What does rural Europe look like in 2030? Is agriculture still the main land user? In recent years, studies such as ESPON, Eururalis, SCENAR2020, SENSOR, SEAMLESS and PRELUDE have tried to address these questions. These studies resulted in a number of alternative futures of rural areas in the EU. In this paper a comparative analysis of these scenario studies is made in order to explore differences and similarities in the scenarios and alternative futures of rural areas in the EU. For this purpose, we designed a scheme for assessing the properties of the various scenarios and a scheme for a systematic description of the rural futures according to the scenarios. It appears that most scenario studies use a baseline scenario and a set of alternative scenarios with different degrees of policy regulation. Agriculture will continue to be a main land user in 2030, although some land abandonment will take place.

Keywords: Agribusiness; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 8
Date: 2009-12
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ea113a:57506

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.57506

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