HOW CAN WE GET RID OF DOGMATIC PRIOR INFORMATION?

T. Kloek

No 272348, Econometric Institute Archives from Erasmus University Rotterdam

Abstract: In this paper it is argued that conclusions cannot be sturdy if they are based upon unchecked dogmatic prior information. The vehicle chosen to evaluate models is their out-of-sample prediction performance. If model M predicts systematically better than model N we should stop using N, but if the difference in predictive quality is mainly caused by a few very influential observations there is reason for serious doubt. The testing point of view of McAleer et al. (1985) and many others is adopted, but it is demonstrated that some of the tests may be misleading. The author agrees with the conclusion of Learner (1985) that sensitivity analysis is important but he prefers different tools of analysis and a different reporting style.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28
Date: 1986-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/272348/files/erasmus182.pdf (application/pdf)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/272348/files/erasmus182.pdf?subformat=pdfa (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:eureia:272348

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.272348

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Econometric Institute Archives from Erasmus University Rotterdam Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().