Forecasting Accuracy Comparison of EPIC Crop Simulation and Time Series Model

Jongsan Choi

Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, 2015, vol. 38, issue 3

Abstract: Faced with the need to solve complex and variable management problems in agriculture, agricultural economists have begun to use quantitative methods such as econometric models for their research. However, this approach only allows for research based on quantitative data. Crop simulations have been proposed as an alternative to overcome data limitation. This study aims to introduce an Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, to demonstrate EPIC’s usefulness for estimating past or future crop production by comparing forecast accuracy with forecasting time series methods, and to discuss the possibility of agricultural economists utilizing the EPIC model. Since the research result shows EPIC simulation has high forecast accuracy on crop production and can generate data which are very difficult to acquire in the real world, it is expected that the research integrated with crop simulation by agricultural economists will increase if they have the ability to run EPIC simulation.

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/330676/files/RE38-3-05.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jordng:330676

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.330676

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje from Korea Rural Economic Institute Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().