Housing Market Dynamics and the GFC: The Complex Dynamics of a Credit Shock

Arthur Grimes and Shane Hyland

No 291377, Motu Working Papers from Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

Abstract: We analyse the multiple channels of influence that GFC-induced credit restrictions had on New Zealand’s subnational housing markets. Our model isolates dynamics caused by impacts on the supply and the demand sides of the market. These dynamics are compared to those caused by a migration shock, a more common form of housing shock in New Zealand. We focus on the impacts on two outcome variables: house prices and housing supply; both shocks cause substantial cyclical adjustments in each variable. Similar cyclical dynamics could complicate the conduct of macro-prudential policies which are designed to affect bank credit allocation.

Keywords: Public; Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39
Date: 2013-10
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:motuwp:291377

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.291377

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