Forecasting Quality Grade and Certified Angus Beef Premiums

Jason Franken and Joe Parcell

No 285862, 2016 Conference, April 18-19, 2016, St. Louis, Missouri from NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management

Abstract: We evaluate the mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error of alternative forecasts of quality grade and Certified Angus Beef (CAB) premiums, which may be of interest to cow-calf producers, feeders, and packers. A supply and demand model and a vector autoregressive model outperform a naïve model accounting for only seasonal effects for all premiums except the strongly seasonal Choice-Select spread. While there is no significant difference between the supply and demand model and the vector autoregressive model in terms of mean squared error, the supply and demand model outperforms the vector autoregressive model in terms of mean absolute percentage error in predicting the CAB-Choice premium.

Keywords: Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-04
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/285862/files/F ... ll_NCCC-134_2016.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:n13416:285862

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285862

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in 2016 Conference, April 18-19, 2016, St. Louis, Missouri from NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().