Trends in the Accuracy of USDA Production Forecasts for Beef and Pork

DeeVon Bailey and B. Wade Brorsen

No 285733, 1981-1999 Conference Archive from NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management

Abstract: Trends in the accuracy of USDA forecasts of beef and pork production and supply are evaluated. The USDA forecasts underestimated production and supply in the 1980s, but this bias has now disappeared. The variance of forecasts has also declined. Thus, the accuracy of the forecasts has improved. The most recent forecasts meet the criteria of optimal forecasts while the forecasts of the 1980s were not optimal.

Keywords: Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1998-04
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:nc8191:285733

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285733

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