Fertilizer Price Projections Under Strait of Hormuz Disruption Scenarios

Shawn Arita, Ming Wang, Jiyeon Kim, Rwit Chakravorty and Sandro Steinbach

NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor, 2026, vol. 2026, issue 04

Abstract: The April 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor analyzes how the Strait of Hormuz disruption could affect global fertilizer markets under three reopening scenarios: “Quick Reopening,” “Contested Transit,” and “Extended Conflict.” Using a global fertilizer market model that integrates vessel-traffic data, country-specific demand elasticities estimated from 25 years of trade data, and scenario assumptions calibrated to shipping conditions, prediction markets, and industry assessments, the report projects monthly urea and DAP prices, demand responses, and purchasing-window implications through the end of 2027. Under the central “Contested Transit” scenario, wholesale NOLA urea peaks at $784 per short ton in July 2026 and DAP peaks at $828 in September; under “Extended Conflict,” urea rises to $996 and DAP to $892. The report shows that the 2027 crop year is already exposed because zero fall fertilizer has been contracted for 2026/27, and projected fall prices remain well above pre-crisis levels even under a quick reopening. It also finds that affordability is worse than in 2022 because lower crop prices leave farmers with higher input costs and no comparable revenue offset. While the United States has some protection from domestic nitrogen production and seasonal purchasing patterns, the report concludes that persistent disruption and infrastructure damage could keep fertilizer prices above pre-war levels through at least early 2028.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade; Resource/Energy Economics and Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Supply Chain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ndsutm:396439

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.396439

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