Predicting Arrival Delays: An Application of Spatial Analysis

Tony Diana

No 207260, 51st Annual Transportation Research Forum, Arlington, Virginia, March 11-13, 2010 from Transportation Research Forum

Abstract: Analysts have many tools available to forecast delays. However, spatial analysis does not readily come to mind when predicting delays. Based on the case study of Newark Liberty International airport (EWR), this study proposes to illustrate the potential application of prevalent geostatistical techniques to delay forecast. Arguably, there is a high degree of dependence among delays in a space or neighborhood defined by hour of operation and by day. Local spatial autocorrelation statistics can help determine how delays in a space are autocorrelated to other ones. Among the other spatial analytical techniques, kriging enables the interpolation of delay estimates at unobserved spaces based on the values at observed spaces. Error estimates can be mapped to define spatial patterns (spaces where delays are likely to be more intense). Finally, spatial error regression provides a method for analysts to test the reliability of their findings when spatial dependency in errors is not taken into account.

Keywords: Productivity Analysis; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16
Date: 2010-03
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ndtr10:207260

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.207260

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