An Estimation of International Maritime Container Volume Among Asian Countries by GTAP Model and Simulation on FTA And Transport Improvement Scenario

Ryuichi Shibasaki, Liqiang Ma, Takashi Kadono, Tomoki Ishikura and Hitoshi Ieda

No 331384, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: While regional economic integration has recently attracted much interest, its impact on the rapidly developing international maritime transport industry is a major concern. This paper proposes a method for estimating the international container cargo OD flows under various hypothetical FTA memberships and transport technical progress by incorporating the GTAP model. The effects under the FTA scenarios and transport technical progress scenarios on the selected countries’ economy, social welfare, trade amounts and container OD flows are discussed. Since this method provides an approach for estimating the OD flows on a national wide level, it can be utilized for assessing the policy effects on international trade and transportation. In addition, it is also an important step for demand forecasting such as the volume of container handling and transshipment on the international container shipping transport networks.

Keywords: International Relations/Trade; Public Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27
Date: 2005
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331384

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