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Reconciling Bilateral Trade Statistics in the Presence of Re-exports via Third Countries: The Case of China, Hong Kong and Their Major Trading Partners

Zhi Wang (), Mark Gehlhar and Shunli Yao

No 331631, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: This paper develops a mathematical programming model to simultaneously estimate reexport markups and reconcile bilateral trade statistics between China, Hong Kong, and their trading partners. The model is applied to GTAP sector level trade flows to resolve discrepant reporting in an efficient manner. Adjustments in trade flows are based upon particular bilateral trade routines reliability as well as statistical reporter’s reliability information. The program is implemented in GAMS and retains many desirable theoretical and empirical properties. Estimates are used for generating trade flows and markups for Hong Kong’s reexports used in the forthcoming version 7 GTAP database. The model’s flexibility has potential for expanded use in other regions where re-exports and associated markup cause discrepant trade flows.

Keywords: International Relations/Trade; Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36
Date: 2007
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