Anticipating the Regional Effects of an Ageing Population: A Dynamic CGE Analysis for Finland

Juha Honkatukia, Jouko Kinnunen and Kimmo Marttila

No 331829, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: Coping with the effects of an ageing population is among the foremost fiscal challenges in most industrialised countries. Among the European economies, Finland provides an interesting case, as the large post-war baby-boomer generations are some years older than in other European counties, and the country is thus already coping with the effects of ageing. We evaluate the regional effects of ageing using the VERM model, a dynamic, regional CGE model for Finnish Economy. The model bases on the well-known TERM model, but has been extended in several aspects. Our dynamic extension uses MONASH-type dynamics. To study the effects of ageing, we introduce an econometric approach whereby we use econometric results for the parameter values determining the population-driven demand for public services, taking into account changes in the number and in the structure of population. Secondly, we combine CGE analysis to study fiscal pressure on public sector finances. The public sector is divided in tree sub-sectors, namely, the central government, municipalities and social security funds. The study is related to an on-going evaluation of the financial relations especially between the central government and local authorities.

Keywords: Labor and Human Capital; Agricultural and Food Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/331829/files/4403.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331829

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().