The effects of a credit crisis: simulations with the USAGE model

Peter B. Dixon, Maureen T. Rimmer, Martin Johnson and Chris Rasmussen

No 331861, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: We look at OECD macro forecasts made in November 2007 and November 2008. From this comparison, we deduce what the OECD was anticipating for the effects of the 2008 U.S. credit crisis on GDP in 2009-11. We reproduce the OECD-implied GDP effects in the USAGE model by imposing appropriate credit shortages. In this way, we use the CGE framework to fill out the industry, employment and trade implications of the credit crisis. The simulations show real devaluation of the U.S. currency and stimulation of trade-exposed industries. However, the U.S. currency remains strong. This leaves us with a modeling challenge: how to conduct a simulation in which there is a sharp reduction in investment but no real depreciation.

Keywords: Financial Economics; Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331861

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