Nile Water Availability and Agricultural Productivity in Egypt: A CGE Approach

Emanuele Ferrari, Scott McDonald and Rehab Osman

No 332386, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: Agriculture and irrigation in Egypt are highly reliant on Nile water availability. Examining the potential implications on the anticipated changes in Egypt’s share of the Nile water for Agriculture is one of the most crucial political issues in the Nile Basin region. This paper undertakes quantitative impact assessment of potential water availability implications using a variant of the single country CGE model (STAGE) for Egypt. Its ultimate goal is to establish a benchmark for analysing how potential changes in Nile water supply would affect the Egyptian economy and for understanding how the optimal allocation of scarce irrigation water would be defined. The study results inform policymakers the best measures directed to minimize potential adverse impacts of water availability shock to the economy. Simulation scenarios conduct different water losses across irrigation seasons. Preliminary results indicate negative economy-wide impact, particularly under the restricted construction plan for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The Egyptian economy would be more affected by water reduction in the summer season whereas the least impact occurs during the Nili season.

Keywords: Resource/Energy Economics and Policy; Productivity Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332386

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