Identifying the effects of NAFTA on the U.S. economy between 1992 and 1998: a decomposition analysis

Peter Dixon and Maureen Rimmer

No 332660, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: Trade policies often get a bad rap. It is often difficult to pinpoint the causes of poor economic outcomes and trade policies become a convenient scapegoat. In a much quoted article, Kehoe (2005) criticizes CGE modelers for underestimating the trade-stimulating effects of NAFTA. His evidence is that in the 10 years following the signing of NAFTA, trade volumes for the NAFTA countries grew more quickly than was shown ex ante in the CGE results. However, properly interpreted the CGE results were not about how fast trade would grow in these 10 years. Rather they were about how NAFTA would affect growth in trade. Put another way, the CGE modelers were making projections of how much trade growth should be attributed to NAFTA. In this paper, we address the attribution issue. Using a detailed CGE model, we decompose movements in U.S. macro and industry variables from 1992 to 1998 into the contributions of NAFTA factors and other factors.

Keywords: International; Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332660/files/7345.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332660

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by AgEcon Search ().