Analysis of Paths of China’s Carbon Emission Peaking by 2030-based on SICGE model

Cai Songfeng, Jifeng Li and Yaxiong Zhang

No 332741, Conference papers from Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project

Abstract: In this research, we focus on studies of reasonable paths of carbon emission peaking in our country by 2030 from both technological and economic perspectives and hope to make suggestions on relevant energy conservation and emission reduction policies with the intention of realizing reasonable paths and under the goal-oriented principle. In respect of research methods, we employ marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) model to estimate the technological path of carbon emission peaking by 2030 in the first place. The model covers a total of 95 emission reduction technologies in 12 industries and sectors: steel and iron, cement and other high energy-consuming industries, other non-high energy-consuming industries, power generation, heat supply and other energy supply sectors, agriculture, service industry, residential building, transportation, and other industries. However, the MACC-based research is a comparative static research that makes a contrastive analysis of two states, so it cannot provide a dynamic path to reduce carbon emission over time. Therefore, based on this research, we use the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model of National Information Center to further make studies on dynamic economic paths, compare one carbon price path scenario with another with the carbon price in the carbon market being core index reflecting cost of emission reduction, and analyze the economic efficiency and emission reduction effectiveness of different paths. At last, we also take into account both results of carbon price scenarios and technological paths worked out by means of MACC method, make a comprehensive assessment of carbon emission reduction paths and make corresponding policy suggestions on this basis.

Keywords: Resource/Energy; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332741

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