Testando a hipótese do mercado central: uma análise dos preços do boi gordo na presença de quebras estruturais

Aline de Queiroz Assis Andreotti Pancera and Alexandre Florindo Alves

Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), 2020, vol. 58, issue 4

Abstract: Aiming to understand price dynamics and the consequences of exogenous shocks in the fat cattle market, the current study has as main goal to identify if structural changes in supply chain and in price dynamics led to changes in the Brazilian beef cattle central market between 2006 and 2017. Therefore, it was intended to test the presence of structural breaks through the Chow test and, according to methodology proposed by Asche et al. (2012), spatially delineate the beef market in Brazil by the Johansen cointegration test (1988, 1995) and identify the central market by the weak exogeneity test. According to the structural breaks test the series was divided into three smaller samples defined by Period I, II and III. In the Period I (early 2006 to 2008), São Paulo was the region that presented the deepest influence on prices comparing to other ones and it was identified as the central market. In the Period II (2009 to 2013) and III (2014 to early 2017), Mato Grosso do Sul became the central market. In conclusion, the results pointed out that the regional changes on beef cattle agribusiness changed the common economic market and the central market over the analyzed period.

Keywords: Demand; and; Price; Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:revi24:341133

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.341133

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