When ENSO Reigns, It Pours: Climate Forecasts in Flood Planning

Kris Wernstedt and Robert Hersh

No 10603, Discussion Papers from Resources for the Future

Abstract: Recent scientific and technical advances have increased the potential use of long-term seasonal climate forecasts for improving water resource management. This paper examines the role that forecasts, in particular those based on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, can play in flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. While strong evidence of an association between ENSO signals and flooding in the region exists, this association is open to more than one interpretation depending on: a) the metric used to test the strength of the association; b) the definition of critical flood events; c) site-specific features of watersheds; and d) the characteristics of flood management institutions. A better understanding and appreciation of such ambiguities, both institutional and statistical, is needed to facilitate the use of climate forecast information for flood planning and response.

Keywords: Resource/Energy; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37
Date: 2001
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:rffdps:10603

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.10603

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