Review of Forecasting in the Economic Research Service

Richard C. Haidacher and Jim L. Matthews

No 344506, Miscellaneous Publications from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

Abstract: Excerpts from the report Summary: An evaluation of the forecasting activity in the Economic Research Service identified several areas which needed further attention: (1) specification of appropriate procedures for measuring forecast error, (2) determination of actual sources of forecast error, (3) determination of the implications of forecast error, and (4) use of futures quotations in forecasting cash market prices. The particular methods used in developing ERS forecasts, although very detailed in many respects, are quite informal compared with more structured quantitative models. As a consequence, it is much more difficult to verify the procedures and forecasts in a scientific sense. Information compiled in this report suggests that such procedures can eventually be verified and, consequently, more fully evaluated in a scientific context.

Keywords: Research Methods/Statistical Methods; Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 458
Date: 1977-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uersmp:344506

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.344506

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