Global Food Assessment, 2025–35

Yacob Abrehe Zereyesus, Lila Cardell, Jarrad Farris, Kayode Ajewole, Michael E. Johnson, Jessie Lin, Constanza Valdes and Wendy Zeng

No 402735, Miscellaneous Publications from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

Abstract: This annual report is published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service before September 30 of each year as required by section 408 (b) of Public Law 480 and 7 U.S.C. 1736b of Public Law 95−98. The results in this report are based on macroeconomic assumptions finalized as of August 2024. Food insecurity, defined by the lack of consistent access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food for an active and healthy life, affects millions globally. Declining incomes, high food prices, and food supply shocks exacerbate food security. This report, using the Global Food Assessment (GFA) model, projects food security trends in 83 low- and middle-income countries by estimating the percentage of people in each country consuming less than 2,100 kilocalories per person per day. The assessment reports a significant improvement in food security in 2025 compared to 2024 due to an average 3.7 percent growth in per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and reduced food price inflation. Specifically, the number of food insecure people is estimated to decrease by 26.7 percent (220.5 million people), reaching 604.2 million people, or 13.5 percent of the GFA population, in 2025. However, ongoing political and macroeconomic instability, armed conflict, and weather-related shocks such as droughts, are identified as key factors driving worsening food security in vulnerable countries. Over the next decade, a further 51.7 percent reduction in the proportion of food insecurity is projected, reaching 6.5 percent of the GFA population. This reduction is driven by sustained GDP growth, particularly in Asia and the Former Soviet Union, and relatively lower commodity prices. This would result in a food insecure population of 332.9 million by 2035, representing a 44.9 percent reduction relative to 2025.

Keywords: Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 76
Date: 2025-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-inv
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uersmp:402735

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.402735

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