 Global Food Assessment, 2026–36Yacob Abrehe Zereyesus, Lila Cardell, Jarrad Farris, Kayode Ajewole, Michael E. Johnson, William Johnson, Jesse Lin, Constanza Valdes and Wendy Zeng No 410193, Miscellaneous Publications from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Abstract: This annual report is published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service before September 30 each year as required by section 408(b) of Public Law 480 and 7 U.S.C. 1736b of Public Law 95−98. Based on macroeconomic assumptions completed in September 2025, this report uses the Global Food Assessment (GFA) model to evaluate food demand in 83 low- and middle-income countries and monitor each country’s ability to meet this demand (food and non-food) through its production and local sources. The gap between local food availability and food demand helps identify potential markets for U.S. agricultural products. Grain demand in GFA countries is projected to rise from 1.1 billion tons in 2026 to 1.4 billion tons by 2036, driven mainly by increased needs in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, with grain production growing at only 1.6 percent annually, it will not meet the 2.1 percent annual increase in demand, widening the supply gap. In 2026, 19.5 percent of the population (or 884.4 million people) across 83 of the GFA countries are estimated to be food insecure, measured by the percentage of people consuming less than 2,100 kilocalories per person per day. By 2036, the number of food-insecure people in these countries is projected to decline by 33.4 percent, reaching 589 million individuals (or 11.4 percent of the GFA population), due to sustained income growth and stable commodity prices. While the Former Soviet Union (FSU) is projected to maintain a surplus in grain production, other regions are expected to face widening deficits. This situation will necessitate a 36-percent rise in the Implied Additional Supply Required from 325.6 million tons in 2026 to 441.7 million tons in 2036. Asia’s food supply gap is projected to grow due to income growth, population expansion, and increased demand for animal products. In Latin America and the Caribbean, rising grain demand driven by income growth and urbanization is projected to result in increasing reliance on imports. Similarly, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to experience a widening grain deficit due to slow production growth and high cereal import dependence. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to face rising food demand driven by population growth, leading to increased dependence on imported grains and higher-value foods. These broad economic trends do not account for localized shocks which may continue to exacerbate food insecurity in vulnerable regions of SSA, MENA, and the Caribbean (e.g., Haiti), regardless of global averages. The projections do not consider the impacts of unforeseen future events—such as weather shocks, armed conflict, and political and economic instability—that may have occurred after the projections were completed. Keywords: Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; International Relations/Trade; Productivity Analysis; Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uersmp:410193 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Miscellaneous Publications from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Contact information at EDIRC. |
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