Evaluating the Impacts of Projected Yield Changes on India’s Wheat and Rice Markets

Kayode Ajewole, Ethan Sabala and Jayson Beckman

No 356543, Economic Research Report from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

Abstract: This report evaluates how yield changes induced by volatile weather trends can impact India’s production, prices, and trade of wheat and rice. Results from a computable general equilibrium model show that under two volatile weather trend scenarios (one that is considered business as usual and another that projects more volatile weather), India is expected to see an increase in average yields for both rice and wheat in the next two to three decades. While increasing per hectare yield leads to higher total rice production in this report’s model, an increase in household income and population (as projected by USDA, Economic Research Service) will lead to higher per capita demand for rice in India. According to model results, this demand is expected to lead to an estimated reduction in exports of both rice and wheat to the global market. Furthermore, results indicate that countries importing from India would shift their demand to other major rice and wheat exporters.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Climate Change; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Relations/Trade; Productivity Analysis; Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods; Resource/Energy Economics and Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35
Date: 2025-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uersrr:356543

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.356543

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