AN EMPIRICAL BAYES APPROACH TO MODELING DROUGHT

P.J. Chamberlain

Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1988, vol. 13, issue 01, 8

Abstract: This paper illustrates an alternative approach to estimating the occurrence of drought. The empirical Bayes methodology was developed because of deficiencies in time-series and regression analysis with respect to prediction of drought. This manuscript is comprised of (a) a discussion of "classical" and Bayes estimators of probability density (or mass) functions, (b) a description of the model, and (c) a comparison of the performances of the empirical Bayes and two classical estimators in predicting the elapsed time until drought. The Bayes value (incorporating both a priori and data information) was found to be superior to the traditional estimates.

Keywords: Resource/Energy; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1988
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:wjagec:32150

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.32150

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