Emergence of pluralistic ignorance: An agent-based approach

Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron and Barbara Kamińska
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Barbara Kamińska

No WORMS/25/08, WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) from Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology

Abstract: Pluralistic ignorance is a puzzling social psychological phenomenon in which the majority of group members privately reject a norm yet mistakenly believe that most others accept it. Consequently, they publicly comply with the norm. This phenomenon has significant implications for politics, economics, and organizational dynamics because it can mask widespread support for change and hinder collective responses to large-scale societal challenges. The aim of this work is to demonstrate how agent-based modeling, a computational approach well-suited for studying complex social systems, can be applied to investigate pluralistic ignorance. Rather than providing a systematic literature review, we focus on several models, including our own two models based on the psychological Social Response Context Model, as well as two other representative models: one of the first and most influential computational models of self-enforcing norms, and a model of opinion expression based on a silence game. For all of these models, we provide custom NetLogo implementations, publicly available at https://barbarakaminska.github.io/NetLogo-Pluralistic-ignorance/, which allow users not only to run their own simulations but also to follow the algorithms step by step. In conclusion, we note that despite differences in assumptions and structures, these models consistently reproduce pluralistic ignorance, suggesting that it may be a robust emergent phenomenon.

Keywords: Pluralistic ignorance; Social Response Context Model; Collective adaptation; Opinion dynamics; Agent-based modeling; NetLogo; Complex systems (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 D72 D91 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-evo
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https://worms.pwr.edu.pl/RePEc/ahh/wpaper/WORMS_25_08.pdf Original version, 9.2025 (application/pdf)

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