Shifting Ground: A Counterfactual Analysis of Recovery in Earthquake-Affected Regions

Giulio Breglia () and Marco Modica ()
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Giulio Breglia: Gran Sasso Science Institute
Marco Modica: Gran Sasso Science Institute

No 2025-10, Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography from Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences

Abstract: Disasters disrupt socio-economic systems unevenly, and their spatial im pacts are often derived from pre-existing territorial vulnerabilities. Given this evidence, this paper investigates the spatial dimensions of post-disaster recov ery by analysing the housing market in the aftermath of the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. We adopted a two-stage methodology that combines the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) and Diff-in-Diff (DiD) to evaluate recovery trajectories across six spatial categories, underlining spatial heterogeneity in recovery dy namics. The results reveal significant variation in the recovery patterns, with independent municipalities performing better than urban hamlets. This study underscores the importance of fine-grained spatial analysis for post-disaster pol icy design. These findings have significant implications for resilience planning and the development of targeted recovery strategies.

Keywords: Disasters; Housing; Synthetic Control Method; Regional; Counterfac tual (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2025-02, Revised 2025-02
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp72

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