Experimental Trajectories of Convergence and Divergence Processes of Russian Regions Population Incomes Inequality

Dmitry B. Berg, Daniel M. Balungu, Andrei G. Shelomentsev, Kseniya S. Goncharova

Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2024, vol. 23, issue 2, 364-393

Abstract: The study is devoted to the problem of differentiation of incomes of the population of Russia's regions. The goal of the work is to develop a methodology for analyzing the processes of differentiation of incomes of the population in Russia's regions based on the theory of dynamic systems and machine learning, and its testing on recent analytical data. The research hypothesis lies in the assumption of the simultaneous coexistence of processes of convergence and divergence of processes of differentiation of incomes of the population of Russia's regions, depending on external and internal factors. These processes are the subject of the research. The information base is the Federal State Statistics Service's data on the values of the Gini index of 80 regions for the period from 1995 to 2018. To construct experimental trajectories, in addition to the Gini index, two independent dynamic variables were used - its first and second derivatives, which made it possible to construct 3 different spaces of states (from one-dimensional to three-dimensional). Using the k-means clustering method, the entire observed set of states was divided into 5 clusters, the number of which was previously determined by the “elbow method” test. As a result of the calculations, the predominance of convergent processes over divergent ones during the studied period was proven. It was found that the individual trajectories of certain regions in the space of state differ significantly: the trajectories of some regions can be localized within only one cluster, while some parts of the trajectories of others can belong to up to 4 clusters. The majority of the trajectories are located within 2-3 clusters. The theoretical significance of the results obtained lies in deepening the understanding of the regional specifics of the dynamic changes in the differentiation of income of the population of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The practical significance of the research results lies in the expansion of instrumental support for decision-making in the implementation of the state policy in the field of regulating the differentiation of income of the population at the regional level.

Keywords: machine learning; clustering; theory of dynamic systems; space of states; experimental trajectories; territorial disproportions; differentiation of living standards; convergence/divergence of incomes. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 R1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aiy:jnjaer:v:23:y:2024:i:2:p:364-393

DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2024.23.2.015

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