A sub-asymptotic model for bivariate threshold exceedances

Mirco Lescart (), Anna Kiriliouk () and Philippe Naveau ()
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Mirco Lescart: Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium
Anna Kiriliouk: Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium

No 2026011, LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA from Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA)

Abstract: Extreme value theory offers a statistical framework for quantifying the risk of rare events, with the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution providing the canonical limit model for univariate threshold exceedances. In many applications, however, extremes are intrinsically multivariate, requiring models that capture both marginal tail behaviours and joint extremal dependencies. Under asymptotic dependence, the multivariate GP distribution represents a suitablemodellingfamily, butwhenasymptoticindependencearises, sub-asymptoticmodels are needed. In this work, we propose and study a flexible sub-asymptotic parametric class to model bivariate threshold exceedances. Our new model accommodates a broad range of tail dependence behaviours and contains the standardised multivariate GP distribution as a limiting case while retaining margins that converge to univariate GP tails. Our formulation allows extremal dependence to evolve naturally with the marginal parameters on the original data scale, facilitating direct computation and interpretation of failure probabilities. Model inference is done via a likelihood-free neural Bayes estimation approach, with tailored prior specifications. An extensive simulation study and an application to Belgian rainfall extremes illustrate the estimation framework and the flexibility of the model.

Keywords: Bivariate extremes; peaks-over-thresholds; multivariate generalized Pareto distribution; asymptotic independence; neural Bayes; rainfall (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46
Date: 2026-04-15
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