China's economy: From past to future

Vito Tanzi ()
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Vito Tanzi: Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington, DC, USA

Acta Oeconomica, 2020, vol. 70, issue s, 117-126

Abstract: Why did China grow so fast in the past four decades? What were the main factors? Important ones were: attitude of government; opening to the world; role of culture; exploitation of technological gap; role of foreign trained students; and role of government in the creation of modern infrastructure. These factors are likely to play a much smaller role in the future while several negative factors –populism, trade wars, environmental obstacles, aging of the population, authoritarianism and others are likely to lead to significantly lower growth rates.

Keywords: economic growth; factors that contribute to growth; catching up hypothesis; technology gap; human capital; openness; populism; trade wars (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F6 P2 P52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
Note: Ehtisham Ahmad and Alex Tanzi discussed with me some of the issues in this paper and provided some useful information. I am grateful to both of them.
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