Scenario Modeling of International Trade Activities of the Sverdlovsk Region

Sergei Sergeyevich Krasnykh
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Sergei Sergeyevich Krasnykh: Institute of Economics of the Urals branch of RAS, Ekaterinburg, Russia

Russian Foreign Economic Journal, 2022, issue 8, 105-118

Abstract: This study analyzes the international trade activities of the Sverdlovsk region in terms of the commodity and geographic structure, and identifies its features and trends. The unprecedented sanctions against Russia have significantly affected the foreign trade policy of the Sverdlovsk region. In this regard, using the ARIMA modeling method, scenarios of export and import development of this region are built. Based on this method, under the baseline scenario, the drop in exports will be 7 percent by 2024, while imports will decrease by more than 61 percent.

Keywords: Sverdlovsk region; foreign trade activity; export; import; regions; dynamics; foreign economic activity; special military operation; sanctions; crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:alq:rufejo:rfej_2022_08_105-118

DOI: 10.24412/2072-8042-2022-8-105-118

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