Issues of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting Based on Integrating Annual, Quarterly, and Monthly Statistical Data

Gennady Orazovich Kuranov, Lyubov Arkad'evna Strizhkova and Alexander Gennadevich Kuranov
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Gennady Orazovich Kuranov: Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
Lyubov Arkad'evna Strizhkova: Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Moscow, Russia
Alexander Gennadevich Kuranov: Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Moscow, Russia

Russian Foreign Economic Journal, 2026, issue 02, 62-81

Abstract: This study aims to examine the challenges of short–term quarterly and monthly forecasting of economic indicators under conditions of limited real-time data availability while leveraging historical quarterly data. The research incorporates methods for analyzing the evolution of seasonal fluctuations, decomposing quarterly accounts into monthly estimates, establishing intra-annual relationships between indicators, and reconciling production and expenditure-side national accounts. The integration of annual, quarterly and monthly statistics enhances the informational robustness of forecasts, providing new opportunities for substantiating intra-annual dynamics and improving the reliability of annual estimates of macroeconomic estimates.

Keywords: GDP; production; usage; monthly indices; quarterly reporting; reconstruction; seasonal factor; short-term (medium-term) forecast; quarterly-monthly model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:alq:rufejo:rfej_2026_02_62-81

DOI: 10.64545/2072-8042-2026-2-62-81

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