Effectiveness of Futures Market and Its Forecasting with an Example of WIG20 Futures

Ewa Kusideł () and Monika Rychter ()
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Ewa Kusideł: University of Lodz, Poland
Monika Rychter: University of Lodz, Poland

Chapter 16 in Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica nr 166/2003 - Modern Methods of Analysis and Forecasting Financial Markets, 2003, vol. 166, pp 241-252 from University of Lodz

Abstract: It is very possible that the Polish futures stock market is effective because it is liquid and many small investors assess the information coming from the market. There are some important results after researches on the effectiveness of the futures WIG20 basing on which one may come to the conclusion that in eleven on twelve contracts the semi-strong form was observed. The semi-strong form was not observed in contract that was not effective in a weak form. There are many methods of testing the effectiveness of the market. Authors tested the weak form of effectiveness using the classical test on the return-rates autocorrelation. The semi-strong one was tested by the impulse response method and it is a new one in a methodology. We used the appearing information as a new impulse. Having such results we can come to the conclusion that there is no sense in constructing the model for prognostic uses and to receive higher than average rale of return if the market is effective. In this way there is no sense to construct such a model in futures WIG20 market.

Keywords: VAR model; IRF; Effectiveness of Futures Market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 E02 F00 G00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ann:findec:book:y:2003:n:166:ch:16:foe

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