Monetary Policy Decision-Making and Communication under High Uncertainty: the Case of Costa Rica

Evelyn Muñoz-Salas () and César Ulate-Sancho ()
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Evelyn Muñoz-Salas: Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of Costa Rica
César Ulate-Sancho: Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of Costa Rica

No 2601, Ensayos de Política Económica from Banco Central de Costa Rica

Abstract: This essay is part of a research agenda developed within the framework of the Consultative Group on Monetary Policy (CGMP) of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS, https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap163.htm), which documents lessons learned by central banks in the Americas and other emerging market economies following recent episodes of heightened uncertainty. The agenda draws on survey evidence, analytical frameworks and institutional experiences to examine monetary policy decision-making and communication in highly uncertain environments. The essay describes the approach of the Central Bank of Costa Rica to incorporating uncertainty into macroeconomic analysis, risk assessment and monetary policy communication, and provides evidence on how analytical frameworks, decision-making processes and communication strategies have been adapted in an environment of elevated volatility and increased macroeconomic complexity. ***RESUMEN: Este ensayo forma parte de una agenda de investigación desarrollada en el marco del Grupo Consultivo de Política Monetaria (CGMP) del Banco de Pagos Internacionales (BIS), que documenta las lecciones aprendidas por bancos centrales de América y otras economías emergentes, tras episodios recientes de elevada incertidumbre. recopila encuestas, marcos analíticos y experiencias institucionales, con el objetivo de examinar cómo se toman decisiones de política monetaria y se en contextos de elevada incertidumbre. Se presenta el enfoque del Banco Central de Costa Rica para integrar la incertidumbre en el análisis macroeconómico, en la evaluación de riesgos y en la comunicación de la política monetaria, aportando evidencia concreta sobre la adaptación de los marcos analíticos, los procesos de decisión y las estrategias de comunicación en entornos de elevada volatilidad y complejidad macroeconómica.

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Uncertainty; Monetary Policy Communication; Reaction Function; Forward Guidance; Scenario Analysis, Política monetaria, Incertidumbre, Comunicación de la política monetaria, Función de reacción, Orientación prospectiva, Análisis de escenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 E50 E58 F42 G01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2026-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-mon
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