Analyzing the Influence of Team Formation on Soccer Match Outcomes

O. Ashton Morgan and Jayjit Roy

No 25-08, Working Papers from Department of Economics, Appalachian State University

Abstract: This paper investigates the strategic role of soccer formations on match outcomes. Using six seasons (2016Ð2022) of English Premier League data we estimate the impact of four dominant formationsÑ4-3-3, 4-4-2, 4-5-1, and wingbacksÑon expected and actual goals differential with a three-stage empirical strategy. Results from a fixed effects linear model show that playing a 4-3-3 at home yields the highest expected goal advantage across nearly all opponent formations. Predictive margins, conditional on opponent formation, further show that the wingback system also performs well at home. In contrast, the 4-4-2 formation is the least effective for away teams, likely due to being overloaded in midfield and limited press resistance. These findings align with tactical shifts over time away from a more rigid 4-4-2 formation toward more flexible systems that maximize spatial control and pressing efficiency. Key Words: Strategic Behavior; Soccer Formations; Expected Goals; English Premier League

Date: 2025
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