Forecasting Location Demand for office space with Conjoint Measurement

Susanne Ertle-Straub

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: Office markets have more than others cycles which are different in the regional markets in Germany. Consequences are vacancy and a loss of rents. The transparency in office space supply in the German markets became much more better in the last years. Therefore the demand for office space is relative less empirically researched. Especially the location decision and the location choice of office tenants are not enough researched. The main question for developers for the decision to a micro-location is: for which office tenants is a micro-location suitable and which price-/product- attributes are to be accepted. When an office market is oversupplied these developer are in advantage, who is able, to adjust the location affords to the location demand of different office tenants. Therefore the research of the location preferences and the explanation and evaluation is necessary. With the thesis of doctorate from the author is a new, product politically explanation for the location decision for office tenants developed. By simulation the decision to lease office space and there micro-location with conjoint analysis is shown a new way to make better location decision for developers and find out the location preferences from office tenants. By set-up panels from office tenants in every main and regional office markets, suppliers and developers will find clusters of office tenants with nearly the same location and product efforts. The prognostic of location preferences and product preferences therefore helps indeed to reduce development and rental risks. The location analysis will accomplish with this conjoint analysis to be a planning marketing instrument for successful offices and the right micro- location.

JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-06-01
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