Macro analysis of real estate markets

Uberto Visconti di Massino and Jo Soeter

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: The macroeconomic data related to real estate (such as capital values, rents and building permits), when plotted on a graph that has time on the abscissa, seem to reflect a function that has a persistent graphical pattern, a cycle. In this work we have attempted to understand what the driving forces and the connections are between observable trends of different indicators. The comparison between two different markets (Italy and The Netherlands, and Milan and Amsterdam), allows us to verify the connections between indicators, and anticipate future trends. In this study we review the mechanics of these dynamics through the elements outlined in literature and then connect these to real national and local indicators to verify the existence of recurring cycles. The comparative analysis allows us to establish empirical causal relationships, between Gross domestic product and real estate developments, and a second causal connection between (office) yields and building permits. The national comparison shows a recurrent time lag, of about 1-2 years, among the two nations, in term of real estate values.

JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-06-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2004_225

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