The Seasonality of the Transactions and the Real Estate Cycle

Benoit Faye and Eric Le Fur

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: The seasonality of the real-estate market is a recognized phenomenon although little studied, notably in its relation with the real-estate cycle. By using a database on the real-estate transactions of the city of Bordeaux, we investigate here the links between the movements of the cycle and the modifications of the seasonality of the prices, for the whole market and by type of possessions. This descriptive approach allows to put the bases of a more relevant modelling of the prices series. On all transactions of the Bordeaux market (more than 170000 sales from 1985 to 2005), we obtain two main results. First, the amplitude of seasonality is related to the market growth rate. In addition, each break in trend prices implies a period of arrhythmia whose duration is proportional to the magnitude of the break. Secondly, these statistical relationships are specific to each type of surface. In conclusion, the local nature of the study should be extended to check the robustness and possibly refine the methods used.

JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-01-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2009-334 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2009_334

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Architexturez Imprints ().