Housing market segmentation and real estate bubble threat, Bogota 2006-2015

Oscar Alfonso and Laura Amezquita

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: In the last decade, housing production in real estate at Bogotá has occurred in a singular context characterized by: i) the persistence of the unequal distribution of income leveraged by the flexibility of employment contract and persistence of labor informality; ii) a substantial increase in the rate of household formation dominated by the rise of single-person households, novel feature of present stage of Colombian’s demographic transition ; iii) mutations in State market policies consistent to direct demand subsidy for low-income segments homes, more recently, the interest rate subsidy of mortgage loans for middle-income segments; and iv) the issuance of land use plans that promotes building construction and differentiation in population densities, because jurisdictional barriers with neighboring municipalities prevents its expansion.The segmentation strategy of real estate production has been spatial modified. In the beginning of study period the mean differences and complementarities was: In first place, private areas and parking places in high-income level attained 800 square meters and 10 units by a dwelling, respectively, even though in low-income segments the private areas oscillated around 45 square meters with a parking place rate of 1 by 5 dwelling produced. In second place, changes in density, because in high-income segments the production has been increased substantially as it passed from one segment to another.These research emphasizes in last aspects mentioned above, using geostatistical inference methodology, for establishing changes in the spatial orientations of the new housing production by market segments. Therefore it revels the fast adaptability of segmentation strategy for political housing changes, the economic fluctuations, and specially, choosing decisions for residential allocations of new dwelling housing demands. This works seeks to produce an alternative discourse the in contrast to idea of the bubble estate market threat. In this way, the research uses an intertemporal analysis which reveals transcendent social-spatial phenomena as gentrification.

JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-01-01
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