Which Factors Matter in Location Patterns of Restaurants and Bars? A Longitudinal Analysis of Temporal, Ethno-Demographic, Socio-Economic and Accessibility Attributes

Jonathan Wood, Anupam Nanda and Sotirios Thanos

ERES from European Real Estate Society (ERES)

Abstract: We develop a novel dynamic longitudinal Poisson model that can handle complex temporal shifts and identify the effects of ethno-demographic, socio-economic and connectivity/accessibility attributes in location patterns of bars and restaurants.Two key gaps are observed in the extant literature -not accounting sufficiently for any complex temporal patterns and for the urban or rural area characteristics. We fill these gaps by using a unique dataset of two carefully selected UK city-regions - 626 small areas in Greater Manchester and 658 small areas in Nottingham over a 17-year period (2002-2019). These study areas offer varying scales of urbanity and rurality that play fundamental role in location choice decisions. The results highlight complex temporal patterns as reflected by the non-linearities in time fixed-effects and show contrasting increases in restaurants (39.80% and 36.08% increases in Manchester and Nottingham) compared to reductions in bars (22.69% and 23.13% reductions in Manchester and Nottingham). We only find bars to be positively affected by increased retail activity (by 0.34% in Manchester and 0.49% in Nottingham). While broad ethnic categories, such as Black and Asian, show effects in our models, the recognition of ethnic sub-groups substantially changes the results and offer more nuanced understanding.

Keywords: Dynamic longitudinal Poisson regression; On-premises alcohol outlet; Socioeconomic deprivation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-01-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm and nep-ure
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