Approach to the Assessment Irregularity and Cyclic Dynamics of Territorial Development

Tamara Klebanova, Lidiya Guryanova, Yousef Daradkeh and Sergii Kavun

Asian Economic and Financial Review, 2013, vol. 3, issue 12, 1620-1641

Abstract: Purpose – The main purpose of this study is a modelling of assessment processes for irregularity and cyclical of dynamic regions development, which used to reduce inter-regional contrasts, disruptions and variations in a socio-economic development on base an effective regional financial policy. Design/methodology/approach – The conceptual provisions and model basis of an estimate of irregular and cyclic dynamics of the socio-economic development of any regions, which are functioning in some conditions of a high level of an uncertainty the external environment. At the same time, this external environment has a significant influence to increase of risks and losses in design making. Findings – The model basis presents as a complex of some interconnected modules: the module for estimate and analysis of the irregularity of the socio-economic development any regions; the module to form some management scenarios of the socio-economic development any regions. Targeted direction of the first module is an estimate of an interregional socio-economic differentiation, a detection of some disproportions in the regions development. Description of the second module is a forming of any management scenarios of the socio-economic development any regions which to direct to decrease of a level of the interregional differentiation while ensuring of a sustainable economic growth. Originality/value – Was formed the models complex of a differentiation of the develop regions which can provide a possibility for estimation of some sustainability for the cluster formations regions by a level of the socio-economic development and to make an analysis of their structural dynamics. Also was been developed a complex of a methodical ensuring for a system forecasting of cyclical dynamic of an economic territories growth. The main blocks of this complex are the forecasting of macroeconomic indicators considering some indicators of the cyclical development; a detection and analysis of any cyclical fluctuations indicators of the region development; a forecasting of some crisis and catastrophes in the socio-economic region development. Was been developed the model of an alignment of the socio-economic disproportions on the interregional level on base the fiscal or tax-budget state policy. For forecasting of some consequences change of fiscal policy can be used some scenario approach which realization is doing on base an imitation simulation.

Keywords: Region; Socio-economic development; Irregularity; Structural disproportions; Management; Scenario simulation; Approximation and econometric methods; Regional policy; Balancing; Fractal mathematics and catastrophe theory methods. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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