A simulation-driven assessment of 35 European National Energy and Climate Plans

Phoebe Koundouri, Angelos Alamanos, Giannis Arampatzidis, Stathis Devves, Tatiana Pliakou and Christopher Deranian

No 2550, DEOS Working Papers from Athens University of Economics and Business

Abstract: Achieving climate neutrality in Europe is a critical goal, yet there is no model-based assessment detailing the key factors and assumptions of each Member State's National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). Filling that gap, we evaluated 35 NECPs and simulated them together in a single energy-emissions model, creating a consolidated European National Commitments (NC) scenario. We built a LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) model covering energy consumption and production in the residential, industrial, agricultural, transport (terrestrial, maritime, aviation), and services sectors. For each fuel type and end use, we calculated multi�pollutant greenhouse gas emissions. Under the NC scenario, significant emissions reductions emerge across all sectors by 2050, driven by energy efficiency gains and cleaner fuel mixes. However, achieving these reductions depends on fully implementing 35 NECPs, which vary substantially in their timelines, ambition levels, data granularity, and fuel-trade assumptions. We highlight these inconsistencies and offer policy recommendations tailored by sector, country, and policy frameworks, providing critical insights to ensure a feasible, holistic and equitable transition.

Keywords: National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs); Europe; Energy-Emissions; LEAP; Policy Recommendations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-08-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-tre
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