Main sources of uncertainty in formulating potential growth scenarios for oil supply

Tatiana Alonso

No 905, Working Papers from BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide an informed contribution to the existing debate on the topic of peak oil and the future sustainability of the prevailing dominant energy model. More specifically, the primary objective is to heighten general awareness of the high levels of uncertainty currently plaguing the future physical potencial of global oil supply. The main sources of uncertainty pinpointed in this analysis are rooted, on the one hand, in the general shortage of verifiable information on the volume of existing reserves and, on the other, in our collective hazy knowledge regarding the current rate of decline of the world’s oil supply. The reliability of available estimates concerning these two variables has been clearly thrown into doubt by the poor quality and availability of the source data employed.

Keywords: oil reserves; rates of decline; oil; peak oil; Hubbert peak theory; future oil production (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q31 Q32 Q38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2009-03
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/mi ... 05_tcm348-212932.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bbv:wpaper:0905

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by OSCAR DE LAS PENAS SANCHEZ-CARO ().